On the use of partial area under the ROC curve for comparison of two diagnostic tests

Evaluation of diagnostic performance is typically based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) as its summary index. The partial area under the curve (pAUC) is an alternative index focusing on the range of practical/clinical relevance. One of the problems preventing more frequent use of the pAUC is the perceived loss of efficiency in cases of noncrossing ROC curves. In this paper, we investigated statistical properties of comparisons of two correlated pAUCs. We demonstrated that outside of the classic model there are practically reasonable ROC types for which comparisons of noncrossing concave curves would be more powerful when based on a part of the curve rather than the entire curve. We argue that this phenomenon stems in part from the exclusion of noninformative parts of the ROC curves that resemble straight‐lines. We conducted extensive simulation studies in families of binormal, straight‐line, and bigamma ROC curves. We demonstrated that comparison of pAUCs is statistically more powerful than comparison of full AUCs when ROC curves are close to a “straight line”. For less flat binormal ROC curves an increase in the integration range often leads to a disproportional increase in pAUCs’ difference, thereby contributing to an increase in statistical power. Thus, efficiency of differences in pAUCs of noncrossing ROC curves depends on the shape of the curves, and for families of ROC curves that are nearly straight‐line shaped, such as bigamma ROC curves, there are multiple practical scenarios in which comparisons of pAUCs are preferable.     

Introducing the vectorial Kappa: An index to quantify congruence between vectorial mosaics

This paper introduces the vectorial Kappa (κ_v) that one can utilize to assess congruence between two vectorial mosaics. The vectorial Kappa extends for vectorial mosaics the approach of the so-called Cohen's Kappa index, commonly used to compare raster mosaics. By comparing both approaches, we aim to demonstrate how efficient and convenient a vector-based congruence may be when working on vectorial mosaics.     

Characterization of eukaryotic-like kinase activity in Escherichia coli using the gene-protein database

Abstract The gene-protein database was used to obtain the two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel coordinates of proteins phosphorylated in extracts of Escherichia coli including those phosphorylated by eukaryotic-like kinase activities. These suggest that the phosphoproteins correspond to, or co-migrate with, the product of an open reading frame at 1.3 min (Orf80), Enzyme 1 of the phosphoenolpyruvate-dependent phosphotransferase system (Ptsl), the tRNA synthetase for histidine (HisS), and proteins involved in the response to carbon starvation and quinone treatment.     

Increased abundance of native and non-native spiders with habitat fragmentation

Habitat fragmentation and invasive species often contribute to the decline of native taxa. Since the penetration of non‐native species into natural habitat may be facilitated by habitat fragmentation, it is important to examine how these two factors interact. Previous research documented that, in contrast to most other arthropod taxa, spiders increased in density and morphospecies richness with decreasing fragment area and increasing fragment age (time since insularization) in urban habitat fragments in San Diego County, California, USA. We tested whether a specific mechanism, an increase in non‐native species with fragmentation, is responsible for this pattern. We found that both native and non‐native taxa contributed to the pattern. Abundance of native spiders per pitfall trap sample increased significantly with decreasing fragment size (i.e. a negative density–area relationship) and abundance of non‐natives increased significantly with increasing fragment age. The proportion of non‐native individuals also increased significantly with age. One non‐native species, Oecobius navus, comprised the majority of non‐native individuals (82.2%) and a significant proportion of total individuals (25.1%). Richness of spider families per sample (family density) increased with fragment age due to an increase in the occurrence of non‐natives in older fragments, however, native family richness did not vary with age or area. Due to increasing dominance by non‐native and some native families, family evenness declined with decreasing fragment size and increasing fragment age. Native and non‐native abundance covaried positively arguing against strong negative interactions between the two groups. O. navus had a strong positive association with another common non‐native arthropod, the Argentine ant (Linepitheme humile), suggesting a possible direct interaction. In contrast, abundance of native spiders was negatively correlated with Argentine ant abundance. We hypothesize that fragmentation in this semiarid habitat increases productivity in smaller and older fragments enhancing the density of both native and non‐native taxa.     

Tropical ant communities are in long-term equilibrium

Communities change with time. Studying long-term change in community structure permits deeper understanding of community dynamics, and allows us to forecast community responses to perturbations at local (e.g. fire, secondary succession) and global (e.g. desertification, global warming) spatial scales. Monitoring efforts exploring the temporal dynamics of indicator taxa are therefore a critical part of conservation agendas. Here, the temporal dynamics of the Otongachi leaf litter ant community, occurring in a cloud forest in coastal Ecuador, were explored. By sampling this community six times over eleven years, I assessed how the ant fauna caught by Winkler traps (more diverse and cryptic fauna) and caught by pitfall traps (larger, more mobile fauna) changed over time. The Otongachi leaf litter ant community was dynamic. Although species richness in the community remained constant, temporal turnover of species was high: on average, 51% of the ant species in Winkler traps, and 56% of those in pitfall traps, were replaced with other ant species from one year to the other. Shifts in the rank abundance of species in the community were also large across the eleven years and, on average, shifts in the rank abundance of species collected by Winkler traps doubled those occurring in pitfall traps from one census to the other. In spite of these trends, the Otongachi ant fauna showed no (Winkler) or weak (pitfall) evidence of directional change (towards a new community). Thus, this tropical ant community can be divided in two community compartments. The Winkler compartment composed by a more diverse and cryptic ant fauna appears to be resilient and stable in time. The pitfall compartment composed by larger and more mobile ants may be prone to respond to disturbance. This study suggests that 1) species appearing/disappearing from a site may be rather the rule, difficult to separate from responses to ecological stress. 2) Conclusions made in short-term studies, or studies comparing two (e.g. before and after) snapshots of a community, should thus be revisited. Finally, 3) the ant fauna caught by pitfall traps (a rather simple and cheap survey method) is the most likely community compartment to indicate ecological perturbation. This study adds to the growing evidence that using ants as ecological indicators should incorporate long-term temporal dynamics.     

Spectral composition of shade light in coastal-zone oak forests in SE Bulgaria,and relationships with leaf area index: a first overview

Major knowledge gaps exist with respect to light-quality regimes in the coastal-zone Strandzha Quercus frainetto (Q.f.) forest region adjoining the southern Bulgarian Black Sea. This paper presents preliminary results that help narrow these gaps. In conjunction with leaf area index (LAI) field campaigns we undertook measurements with an array of 7 broad-band (ca 40 nm) sensors covering the range 0.40–0.94 μm, plus 1 sensor for UVB (0.297 μm peak) and 1 for photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Measurements focused on inside-forest shade conditions at sites 0 to ca 15 km from the Black Sea and at altitudes up to ca 120 m above sea level. Some of the sites were also studied using a high-resolution spectroradiometer. A sequential measuring strategy was necessary. This involves potentially large uncertainties, here addressed through estimations of the variability around the sinusoidal course of daylight. Light-quality regimes were found to be in general support of earlier studies of deciduous forests. Our data from the broad-band sensors and from the spectroradiometer are mutually supportive. They indicate a stronger red-shift below Q.f. canopies than below canopies in enclaves dominated by Fagus orientalis and Pinus sylvestris. Transmission in the range 0.50–0.55 μm increases beneath the three types of canopies, most pronounced in the Q.f. case. Analysis of relationships between the inside-forest to open-field irradiance ratio and LAI supports the use of Beer’s Law. We found a fairly strong relationship between the red (0.66 μm) to far-red (0.73 μm) irradiance ratios (R/FR) and LAI for the Q.f. forest. In quantitative terms, the result is new for this Q.f. region, and suggests further research to explore whether a two-sensor approach (0.66 and 0.73 μm) might offer possibilities for further low-cost mapping of the spatio-temporal patterns of R/FR and LAI in Strandzha. Such mapping would assist in further studies of the region’s forest biogeochemistry and vitality.     

Improving efficiency of breeding for higher crop yield

Summary Exclusive selection for yield raises, the harvest index of self-pollinated crops with little or no gain in total bipmass. In addition to selection for yield, it is suggested that efficient breeding for higher yield requires simultaneous selection for yield's three major, genetically controlled physiological components. The following are needed: (1) a superior rate of biomass accumulation. (2) a superior rate of actual yield accumulation in order to acquire a high harvest index, and (3) a time to harvest maturity that is neither shorter nor longer than the duration of the growing season. That duration is provided by the environment, which is the fourth major determinant of yield. Simultaneous selection is required because genetically established interconnections among the three major physiological components cause: (a) a correlation between the harvest index and days to maturity that is usually negative; (b) a correlation between the harvest index and total biomass that is often negative, and (c) a correlation between biomass and days to maturity that is usually positive. All three physiological components and the correlations among them can be quantified by yield system analysis (YSA) of yield trials. An additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) statistical analysis can separate and quantify the genotype × environment interaction (G × E) effect on yield and on each physiological component that is caused by each genotype and by the different environment of each yield trial. The use of yield trials to select parents which have the highest rates of accumulation of both biomass and yield, in addition to selecting for the G × E that is specifically adapted to the site can accelerate advance toward the highest potential yield at each geographical site. Higher yield for many sites will raise average regional yield. Higher yield for multiple regions and continents will raise average yield on a world-wide basis. Genetic and physiological bases for lack of indirect selection for biomass from exclusive selection for yield are explained.